More Evidence of Rising Crime Under Realignment

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More Evidence of Rising Crime Under Realignment

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By Michael Rushford

cuffsWith the recent FBI release of preliminary crime statistics for the first six months of 2012, and continuing reports on local crime from news organizations and police agencies across the state, it is becoming increasingly clear that something happened in California last year that caused a sharp increase in virtually every major category of crime.  The FBI report found a small increase nationally in violent and property crime driven by larger increases in the West.  Since the sweeping changes in sentencing under Governor Jerry Brown’s Public Safety Realignment law took effect in October 2011, the California-based Criminal Justice Legal Foundation has been monitoring criminal activity across the state to gauge the law’s effect on public safety.

While the reports we have collected from local law enforcement agencies over the past year and the recent preliminary report from the FBI are not proof of a trend, they do show a large and abrupt, across-the-board increase in California crime rates which is disturbing.

The Criminal Justice League Foundation noted that, in a January 28, 2013 report, researchers at the University of Minnesota identified a downward national trend in crime, citing better technology and changing social dynamics.  In December, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg boasted that his city’s declining incarceration rate and improved policing had caused a dramatic decrease in major felonies.

FBI Preliminary Semi-Annual Uniform Crime Report

FBI Preliminary Semi-Annual Uniform Crime Report

The recent FBI report tells a different story.  Over the first six months of 2012, violent crime in New York City increased by 3.9% and property crime climbed 6.1%.  But not all large states saw increases, Florida and Texas, both of which have reduced some incarceration rates but maintain tough-on-crime sentencing policies, saw only slight increases or declining rates.  States which have been more aggressive at reducing the incarceration of felons, particularly along the West Coast have reversed the trend of reduced crime in recent years and saw rising rates of both violent and property crimes.

California’s increase has been the most dramatic.  The FBI report for 2011 had crime dropping in all categories compared to the previous year.  The preliminary report for 2012 shows significant increases.  In a February 3, 2013 Pasadena Star-News story, the Police Chiefs of Pasadena, Glendale, and Covina expressed their concerns about rising crime caused by Realignment.  “This is a dangerous public policy,” Glendale Police Chief Brian De Pompa told reporters.  “Without strong state prison accountability, it’s hard to control crime.”

San Francisco District Attorney George Gascon disagrees.  His city has embraced the evidence-based rehabilitation and probation approach to most felons, an approach praised by the ACLU.  In a January 19, 2013 Los Angeles Daily News story, Gascon said, “I know that we cannot incarcerate our way out of this problem.”  Unfortunately, according to a January Associated Press story, the homicide rate in San Francisco increased by 36% last year, and the trend is continuing.  On January 1, 2013, documented gang member David Morales, 19, allegedly killed two people while being pursued by police in San Francisco.  Morales is suspected of having driven through a housing complex and shooting at three men.  Police matched the description of the vehicle involved in the shooting to Morales’s car.  Officers then tried to pull him over.  In the ensuing high-speed chase, Morales rammed into a car at an intersection and sent it spinning into a pedestrian.  Both the passenger of the car, 29-year-old Silvia Tuncun, and the pedestrian, 26-year-old Francisco Gutierrez, were killed.  Morales’s most recent conviction was in April 2012 for gang activity which, under Realignment, left him free on probation at the time of the killings.

Something happened in California last year that has caused a major shift in crime rates. Excuses by supporters of the Governor’s Realignment are of little comfort to Californians who have lost friends or loved ones to so-called ‘low-level’ felons left in our communities because of this dangerous law.

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FBI Report Shows California Crime Rose Sharply in 2012

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By Mike Rushford

Statistics from the FBI, documenting national and state crimes over the first six months of 2012, indicate that after years of declining crime rates, California is experiencing significant increases in every category of reported crime, including a 7.6% increase in homicide and double-digit increases in burglary and auto theft.  While the report only counted crimes in cities with populations of 100,000 or more, the California-based Criminal Justice Legal Foundation cited the increases as evidence of a trend which many in law enforcement saw coming.

“We have been following news stories reporting on crime across the state since March 2012 to determine the impact that Realignment (AB 109), which lowered the consequences for thousands of felons, is having on public safety,” said Foundation President Michael Rushford.  “Although it seemed clear our state was experiencing increases in crime throughout last year, the state officials and academics who had encouraged the sentencing alternatives kept telling us that Realignment was working and that those reporting increased crime were fear-mongers,” he added.

The FBI report indicates that between January and June 2012, the national rate of violent crime rose by 1.9%, compared to the first six months of 2011.  Property crime over the same period increased by 1.5%.  Violent crime in California increased at more than twice the national rate, rising 4% while the rise in property crime was six times higher at 9%.  The report showed the highest crime increases in the West, driven by significant rises for most or all crimes in California, Arizona, Washington, Oregon, and Nevada, while Utah, Idaho, Colorado and Texas experienced either minor increases or reductions in most categories.

While comparisons between states can be simplistic, there are inferences that can be taken by narrowing the criteria.  A comparison with Florida and Texas (which, like California, have large diverse populations, dynamic economies and long national borders) shows the increase in the rate of violent crime in the Golden State was two and a half times higher than Texas and seven times higher than Florida.  While both Florida and Texas have been experimenting with alternative sentencing for juveniles and some drug offenders, both have significantly higher incarceration rates than California, and neither has implemented the sweeping sentencing reforms required under California’s Realignment, which took effect in October 2011.  New York and Washington State, on the other hand, have been engaged in large-scale alternative sentencing for several years.  Both experienced a spike in violent crime similar to California’s along with increases in nearly all categories of property crime.

“This report tends to confirm what police chiefs, sheriffs, parole officers, and even some judges have been warning us about over the past year.  Crime in California is increasing under Realignment,” said Rushford.  “With the enthusiastic support of the Legislature, Governor Jerry Brown has traded the safety of law-abiding Californians for some mostly illusory, short-term savings.  Until major changes are made to Realignment, we can expect excuses and rhetoric from the Administration and even greater increases in crime with each successive report,” he added.

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